Election Forecast

The date of the General Election in May is coming up shortly, and all eyes are on the opinion polls, predicting who is most likely to win the most seats in Westminster. At the moment, there seems to be no overall majority, with the Conservative party predicted to have the most seats in Westminster. However, support for the Labour Government is still going strong in the latest polls, so will the predictions stand correct? Or will another party win the majority?

According to Election Forecast, the majority of England and Wales are in support for the Conservative party, with an estimated 284 seats, but a loss of seats is very likely. Most of Scotland, however, is in support of the SNP, meaning that seat gain is very probable. Seat gain is also probable for the Labour, Plaid Cymru and UKIP, whereas seat loss is likely for both the Liberal Democrats and Green Parties.

The Conservative Party are only just more likely to win more seats than Labour, at 56% to 43%. However, because it is likely that no party will have an overall majority, where they would have to win at least 326 seats, there is a 90% probability that a major party may be forced into a coalition or a minority government. However, there is a slim chance of 6% that Labour will win the majority, and a 4% chance that the Conservatives will win the majority.

The leaders of the Green Party, UKIP, the Lib Dems, the Conservatives, Labour, the SNP and Plaid Cymru

The leaders of the Green Party, UKIP, the Lib Dems, the Conservatives, Labour, the SNP and Plaid Cymru